从国家战略竞争的视角分析，美欧可能达成的自由贸易协定，美国主导、日本配合的泛太平洋战略经济伙伴协定（TPP），WTO的日趋边缘化，以及西方七国在日元贬值问题上演双簧等国际贸易格局的演变趋势，均蕴含着主要发达国家的战略意图。

From the perspective of national strategic competition,The us and Europe could reach free trade agreement,The dominant/Japan with the trans-pacific strategic economic partnership agreement(The TPP),The The WTO increasingly marginalized,And seven western countries in the yen problem looks like the pattern of international trade such as the evolution of the trend,Contains the strategic intentions of major developed countries.

　　西方七国集团（G7）的财长上周末在伦敦郊外的一次非正式会议上默许了美元的飙升与日元的暴跌。所以，世人千万不要过于解读美国财长雅各布·卢听起来似乎有点刺耳的对日本放出狠话。哪有这么巧合，一方面是美元兑日元飙升，另一方面却是美元兑人民币创下19年来的最低水平？就连《华尔街日报》都已承认，日元贬值使日本的出口商相对于中国同行的竞争优势有所增强，矛头所向难道还不清楚？中国或许是此轮日元贬值风暴的最大输家。

The western group of seven(The G7)Finance ministers outside London last weekend acquiesced in an informal meeting of soaring dollar and yen tumbling.so,The world don't too read Jacob Lew, us Treasury secretary sounds a bit harsh to Japan released malicious words.Which is so coincidence,On the one hand, is against the yen, the dollar soared,On the other hand is the dollar against the yuan hit its lowest level in 19 years?Even the[The Wall Street journal]Have been admitted,The yen to Japanese exporters relative to China's competitive advantage,One isn't clear?China may be this round of the yen the biggest losers of the storm.

　　这一切，都源自近十年来全球贸易地图的巨变。

All of this,Originate from the map of global trade for nearly a decade of upheaval.

　　靠掠夺性贸易与金融起家的西方工业化国家，尽管动辄高举自由贸易旗帜，但懂得自由贸易实质的人都明白：自由贸易从来就是假命题。核心利益争夺才是不变的命题。只是他们没有想到，中国自加入WTO以来，仅仅用了11年时间，就将贸易体量做大到全球第二位。以数据来看，2001年，中国的货物进出口总额为5098亿美元，其中出口总额为2662亿美元，进口总额为2436亿美元，进出口排名均居世界第六位。排在前五位的分别是美国、德国、日本、法国和英国。到了2012年，全球商品出口额排名前五位的国家则是：中国、美国、德国、日本和法国。其中，中国出口额排名第一，为20498亿美元，美国以16120美元位居第二，昔日世界第一出口大国德国则以14920亿美元排名第三，曾以贸易立国的日本，去年的出口额为7929亿美元，仅相当于中国出口额的39.2%。至于靠海上贸易起家的英国，去年的出口排名已被挤出全球前十位，分别被荷兰、韩国、俄罗斯和加拿大超越，差不多沦为全球中等贸易国了。

Started by predatory trade and finance in western industrialized countries,Although often exalt banner free trade,But everybody that. Understand the essence of free trade:Free trade has always been false propositions.Core interests competing for proposition is unchanged.But they didn't think of,Since China joined the The WTO,Only use for 11 years,Trade volume will be bigger to second place in the world.With data,In 2001,,China's import and export of goods totaled $509.8 billion,The total exports of $266.2 billion,Imports totaled $243.6 billion,Import and export ranked sixth in the world.Rounding out the top five were the United States/Germany/Japan/France and the UK.By the year 2012,Global merchandise exports is the top five countries:China/The United States/Germany/Japan and France.Among them,China's export volume ranking first,For $2.0498 trillion,The United States was second with $16120,Once the world's export powerhouse, Germany is ranked third with $1.492 trillion,In trading in Japan,Exports of $792.9 billion last year,Only about 39.2% of China's exports.As to rely on maritime trade with Britain,Last year's exports has been out of the global top 10,Respectively by the Dutch/In South Korea/Russia and Canada,Almost become a global medium trading nation.

　　当然，对于中国这样一个非常欠缺自主品牌又基本不掌握贸易品定价权的超级新兴经济体来说，简单的数据排名根本不能说明中国的贸易实力有多强，尤其从贸易价值链中的获益程度有多大。但在西方工业化国家看来，中国在短短十年间跻身全球第一出口大国却是不争的事实。如今，中国的出口总额差不多相当于美国、德国、日本和法国的一半。在西方工业化国家看来，依此发展趋势，或许用不到五年，中国就将占到全球出口份额的五分之一；美欧和日本由此不能不担心，假如中国能顺势升级出口价值链，提高服务贸易竞争力，他们的核心战略利益地带也有可能受到中国出口商的蚕食。更重要的是，中国经由贸易纽带扩大而与贸易伙伴国之间不断签署的人民币双边本币互换协议，正在稳步提升人民币在双边乃至全球贸易结算中的份额，进而助推人民币成为主要储备货币。这对习惯于低成本获益的主要工业化国家来说，绝对是如鲠在喉。换句话说，中国基于入世所获得的贸易红利，尽管在很大程度上是以中国数以千万计的产业工人的血汗换来的，还低效率地消耗了中国本就稀缺的资源，但在美欧和日本的眼里，中国贸易不断扩充的贸易边界，已经触及了他们的核心利益。

Of course,,For China such a basic don't have very lack of independent brands and trade goods pricing power of the emerging economies,Simple data list doesn't show how strong is China's trade power,How much has the especially benefit from trade in the value chain.But in western industrialized countries,China in a short span of ten years one of the first exporter in the world is a fact of life.now,China's total exports, almost equivalent to the United States/Germany/Half of Japan and France.In western industrialized countries,According to this development trend,Maybe in less than five years,China will account for one 5 of global export quotas;So have to worry about the us and Europe and Japan,If China can conveniently export value chain upgrade,Enhance the competitiveness of service trade,Their core strategic interests areas may also be eroded by China's exporters.What is more important,China through trade ties expand constantly between trading partners signed the bilateral local currency swap agreement,Is rising steadily as a share of the renminbi in bilateral and global trade settlement,To boost the yuan as a major reserve currency.This for used to low cost benefit from major industrialized countries,Is definitely something.In other words,Bonuses based on the wto trade in China,Although in the very great degree is a hard-earned tens of millions of Chinese industrial workers,Had low efficiency to use the scarce resources,But in the eyes of the us and Europe and Japan,China's trade border trade is continuously expanding,Have touched their core interests.

　　对此，中国理该比以往任何时候都要更清楚地意识到，目前看起来至少还算不错的经济增长态势以及相对宽松的对外贸易环境，极有可能由于国家层面战略利益的碰撞而面临断崖式风险。

For this,China should more than ever to realize more clearly,Now looks at least decent economic growth and foreign trade environment relatively loose,Most likely due to the collision of national strategic interests risk facing bluffs.

　　事实上，原本内部并非铁板一块的美欧和日本，今年以来在对华贸易与金融策略方面正加速融合，已隐然形成一个成型的贸易与金融围堵圈。笔者认为，美欧一旦达成自由贸易协定，加上美国在金融领域难以撼动的主导地位，不仅将巩固以美欧范式为基础的全球贸易体系，更将打压中国积极参与构建全球贸易体系的行为空间；一旦泛太平洋战略经济伙伴协定达成，则中国在亚太经济济圈的经贸影响将受到严重削弱。原本一向保持对华经济优越感的日本，面对经济规模被中国超越的事实，正试图借力新亚太贸易协定（TPP）来钳制中国，恰恰反映一衣带水的日本不愿看到中国快速崛起的岛国心态。而美国则趁机强化美元在东亚贸易圈的主导地位，进而遏制人民币积极寻求扩大行为空间的努力。至于历时多年也不能达成一项全球贸易协定的世界贸易组织（WTO），假如在这方面迟迟不能取得突破，只能眼睁睁看着地区与双边贸易协定地位不断上升之后被不断边缘化了。

In fact,,Originally, inside is not monolithic either in the us and Europe and Japan,Since this year in terms of trade and financial strategy is to accelerate the convergence,Has concealed form a shape of trade and financial circle of containment.The author thinks that,Once the free trade agreement in the us and Europe,Combined with the United States is hard to shake the dominant position in the financial sector,Not only to consolidate the global trading system on the basis of the paradigm in the us and Europe,Would China bashing the global trading system behavior actively participate in the construction of the space;Once the trans-pacific strategic economic partnership agreement reached,Is China in the Asia Pacific economic circle of economic trade and economic impact will be severely weakened.Originally always keep the economic superiority of Japan in China,Face the fact that economic scale overtaken by China,Are trying to share the new Asia Pacific trade agreement(The TPP)To rein in China,Reflect Japanese don't want to see China's rapid emergence of separated only by a strip of water island mentality.While the United States taken advantage of the strengthening dollar dominance in east Asia trade circle,Efforts to curb the yuan actively seeking to expand space.As for a multi-year cannot reach a global trade agreement of world trade organization(The WTO),If can't make a breakthrough in this area,Can only watch status after rising regional and bilateral trade agreements have been increasingly marginalized.

　　从国家战略竞争的视角分析，美欧可能达成的自由贸易协定，美国主导、日本配合的泛太平洋战略经济伙伴协定（TPP），WTO的日趋边缘化，以及西方七国在日元贬值问题上的演双簧等国际贸易格局的演变趋势，均蕴含着主要发达国家试图切割中国在全球贸易价值链的核心利益，进而打压中国以贸易为纽带提升人民币行为空间的战略意图。

From the perspective of national strategic competition,The us and Europe could reach free trade agreement,The dominant/Japan with the trans-pacific strategic economic partnership agreement(The TPP),The The WTO increasingly marginalized,And seven western countries on the yen looks like etc. The evolution of the pattern of international trade trends,All contains the main developed countries are trying to cut China's core interests in global trade value chain,Thus suppressing Chinese trade as a link to the strategic intent of the renminbi behavior space.

　　事实上，中国一向引以为傲的比较优势正由于商品和劳务成本的上升而日渐削弱。尤其是作为全球价值链核心利益的出口，最近几年来，不仅遭到了美欧贸易保护主义的强力打压，也被其他新兴市场国家所切割。假如中国不能及时升级产业结构，无法在高端产业构筑竞争优势，则中国不仅很难扩大对美欧传统市场的出口，还将由于国内市场的进一步对外开放而使贸易状况恶化；另一方面，一旦新兴市场国家取得相较于中国的经济比较优势，则中国在全球价值链的核心利益将遭到进一步切割。

In fact,,The comparative advantage has always been proud of China because of the cost of the goods and services rise and weakening.Especially the export of as a global value chain's core interests,In recent years,Not only strongly hit by the trade protectionism in the us and Europe,Also was cut by other emerging market countries.If China can't upgrade the industrial structure in time,Unable to build competitive advantage in high-end industry,Is China is not only difficult to expand exports to traditional markets in the us and Europe,Will also be due to the domestic market further opening to the outside world and make the trade condition worsening;On the other hand,Once the emerging market countries have comparative advantage compared with the Chinese economy,Is China's core interests in the global value chain will be have been further cut.

　　因此，在全球贸易格局面临大洗牌的新的历史时期，我们面临的外部竞争形势格外诡异。现在特别需要冷静观察全球金融与贸易竞争对中国的影响，在切实提高应对国际经济摩擦博弈水准的同时，以金砖国家为平台，适当整合新兴经济体与发展中国家的诉求，积极介入国际贸易新规则的制定，推动国际金融秩序改革。与此同时，我们更应深耕核心技术的研发与自主品牌的国际化推广，尽快实现经济战略转型，强化金融竞争力，以进一步提升在全球贸易分工体系中的获益程度。

so,In the global trade pattern faces a big shake-up in the new historical period,We are faced with the external competition particularly weird situation.Now, especially need to calm to observe the effects of global financial and trade competition in China,In response to the international economic friction and improve the game level at the same time,Platform for the brics countries,Appropriate integration to the aspirations of emerging economies and developing countries,Actively involved in new rules for international trade,Promote reform of the international financial order.At the same time,We should be more deep core technology research and development with independent brand internationalization promotion,As soon as possible economic and strategic transformation,Strengthen the financial competitiveness,To further enhance the degree of benefit in the global trade division of labor system.